Research released by UPM Specialty Materials and Smithers suggests major shifts ahead in food packaging, with fibre-based materials expected to hold the largest share by 2045.
The report draws on input from more than 230 packaging professionals across the global value chain and examines the trends expected to influence food packaging over the next two decades.
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Survey participants expect fibre-based packaging to increase its share of the global food packaging market from 37% at present to 42% by 2045.
According to the findings, 71% of respondents believe fibre-based packaging will be regarded as the most sustainable option.
They pointed to developments in barrier coatings that could allow fibre materials to be used in food applications that have so far been largely served by plastics.
The study also indicates that sustainability is expected to move from a branding issue to a regulatory requirement.
Some 71% of respondents said this outcome was likely, while 88% said it would significantly alter packaging decisions.
Extended Producer Responsibility schemes and eco-modulation fees are expected to play a central role in material choice, favouring recyclable, high-performance formats and disadvantaging options that are harder to recycle, highlighted the srudy.
Recycling rates are projected to increase from 31% in 2030 to 37% in 2045.
At the same time, respondents said landfill and incineration are likely to remain part of the waste management picture.
The findings also point to regional differences.
Europe is expected to remain ahead in recycling, while the US and Asia-Pacific are seen facing separate infrastructure and regulatory constraints.
UPM Specialty Materials products and technology director Janne Varvemaa said: “We’re encouraged to see strong momentum behind fibre-based packaging, driven by regulation, consumer demand, and ongoing innovation in barrier technologies. Our role is to support customers in this transition with high-performance, sustainable solutions that do not compromise on functionality.”
