New research highlights the growing pressure US tariffs are placing on the packaging and commercial printing industry.
A fresh white paper from Smithers finds that by 2030 tariffs could drive an extra 6.4% contraction in the US printing market — resulting in over 1,000 business closures if policymakers do not act.
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Impact on print and packaging supply chains
Smithers estimates that US printing demand may drop from around US$84.7 billion to US$78.6 billion by 2030 due to tariff-driven cost hikes.
Commercial print and book printing are forecast to be hardest hit, as rising material costs and reduced discretionary spending force scale reductions.
Packaging-related printing, buoyed by e‑commerce and food-sector growth, shows resilience — yet it is not immune to elevated raw‑material and ink prices caused by import duties.
Operational costs and supply‑side disruptions
Tariffs on paper, inks, plates and packaging raw materials imported from Canada, Mexico or China add pressure across supply chains.
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By GlobalDataIndustry analysis shows the impact is already evident: packaging companies are seeing increased costs, delayed launches and strategic postponements.
One consultancy observed “skyrocketing costs” for Canadian‑sourced paper after tariffs – a trend affecting printers and co‑packers alike.
Trade policy uncertainty and business strategy
The situation remains fluid: recent tariffs introduced in April 2025 faced legal challenges and temporary pauses, while others were rolled back or revised following court rulings.
Such unpredictability complicates planning for packaging printers.
Industry leaders and trade bodies, including PRINTING United Alliance and NAM, are engaging with policymakers to seek relief and ensure ink, paper and packaging supplies remain affordable.
Despite occasional optimism – some argue tariffs could make domestic print firms more competitive – the immediate outlook shows rising operational costs, supply chain disruption and the risk of significant consolidation or closures across the packaging printing sector.
for packaging companies, the challenge is immediate: navigate tariff volatility, manage surging raw‑material costs, and brace for potential plant closures without clear policy direction.
The road ahead for packaging print and tariffs
• Monitoring: Packaging and printing companies must closely track tariff changes—from universal 10% “Liberation Day” duties to product‑specific Section 301 fees.
• Strategy: Firms should explore hedging import costs, revising supplier strategies, or shifting to domestic sources to reduce exposure. Methods like thinner packaging, pared‑down components and simplified designs are already being used to offset costs.
• Advocacy: Participation in lobbying efforts is vital. Industry groups are urging negotiations and exemptions to protect key inputs such as paper and inks.
As the report warns, without coordinated policy relief or adjustments, US tariffs threaten to reshape the market – slashing output and shuttering at least 1,000 printers by 2030.
Packaging printers must adapt quickly to maintain stability and competitiveness in an unpredictable trade environment.
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