Global plastic production reached approximately 435 Mt in 2020, climbing to around 460 Mt in 2024, and is expected to exceed 500 Mt in 2025.
If current trends persist, global production could hit 736 Mt by 2040, a 70 % rise over 2020 levels.
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Academic modelling further forecasts plastics use could near 884 Mt by 2050.
Demand growth outpacing population
This surge is far greater than can be explained by population growth alone. Demand remains robust in OECD countries, while rapidly developing regions in Asia, Sub‑Saharan Africa, and Latin America are industrializing and urbanizing fast, driving additional demand.
Leading sectors include packaging, which alone made up 36.5 % of global plastic use in 2023 and is projected to grow further with e-commerce expansion.
Other major end‑uses include automotive, electronics, consumer goods, and construction.
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By GlobalDataClimate implications of the plastic boom
According to OECD modelling, the plastics lifecycle is projected to generate at least 5 %—equivalent to 2.8 Gt CO₂e/year of global emissions by 2040 under business-as-usual.
Without policy change, emissions are expected to more than double from 1.8 Gt in 2019 to 4.3 Gt CO₂e by 2060, representing 4.5 % of total global emissions.
Waste, leakage, and recycling challenges
Despite some gains, recycling remains minimal: historically around 9–10 % of plastic has ever been recycled more than once.
Without significant change, plastic leakage into the environment could rise by as much as 50 % between 2020 and 2040, reaching roughly 30 Mt/year, alongside a 47 % increase in mismanaged waste.
Global exports of plastic waste have more than halved from 15.6 Mt in 2014 to 6.0 Mt in 2023, largely due to China’s 2018 import ban.
owever, trade persists—Malaysia, Viet Nam, and Indonesia are now key importers, sparking concern over recycling infrastructure and environmental dumping.
Business momentum and industry drivers
Oil and petrochemical firms are increasingly pivoting toward plastics to offset declining demand for fossil fuels. Today, approx. 15.4 % of global oil demand is for petrochemicals, set to rise to nearly 19 % by 2035, with expansion in the Middle East and China.
Despite a saturated market and price pressure, many energy companies continue to build new chemical plants in pursuit of growth.
Policies and pathways for change
The OECD’s Global Plastics Outlook and Policy Scenarios reports outline that comprehensive global policy action is needed to drastically reduce environmental leakage.
Under an ambitious “Global Ambition” policy scenario, the recycling rate could rise from ~9 % in 2020 to 42 % by 2040, and leakage could be cut by 96 % compared to business as usual.
Efforts by the UN Environment Assembly to negotiate a legally binding global plastics treaty are underway, aiming to clamp down on plastic pollution through coordinated international action.
Looking ahead: options and imperatives
Achieving a sustainable future requires a multi-pronged strategy:
- Reduce excessive plastic production and single-use items
- Redesign products for circularity and reuse
- Invest in recycling infrastructure and waste collection globally
- Enforce strong standards and participation in international agreements
- Support innovation in bio-based or more easily recyclable materials
- Foster behavioural shifts among consumers and businesses
The choice is stark: allow plastics demand to climb unchecked—with worsening climate, pollution and waste consequences—or pivot decisively to bend the curve.
