Dow reported an 11% year-on-year decline in packaging and specialty plastics revenue in the third quarter, citing lower prices for finished plastic products.
The segment underperformed expectations and contributed to an 8.3% drop in the group’s total sales. The company guided to fourth-quarter net sales of about $9.4 billion, below the current analyst consensus of roughly $10.2 billion.
Demand steadier, pricing weaker in core packaging resins
While prices deteriorated, Dow said volumes improved sequentially in parts of its industrial chain as new US Gulf Coast polyethylene and alkoxylation capacity ramped up, helping margins in key end markets.
The quarterly loss per share narrowed to $0.19 from $0.42 in the prior period, better than the average forecast for a $0.30 loss, and the shares rose as much as 7.6% in New York premarket trading.
The packaging and specialty plastics unit — centred on polyethylene resins used in films, flexible packaging and consumer goods — posted net sales of about $4.89 billion, down 11% year on year and modestly higher quarter on quarter.
Management attributed the decline mainly to weaker downstream polymer pricing and lower licensing revenue, with polyethylene volumes improving versus the previous quarter.
Polyethylene price trend frames outlook for plastic packaging
Global polyethylene prices were mostly flat to lower into late Q3, with North America and Northeast Asia showing declines versus the prior month, limiting revenue even where volumes improved.
Industry trackers reported September 2025 prices around $1.23/kg in North America (down 3.1% month on month) and $1.30/kg in Northeast Asia (down 2.3%), while Europe was broadly unchanged — a backdrop that tends to compress margins across plastic packaging supply chains.
Sector analysts also point to ongoing global oversupply and competition from new capacity as headwinds for packaging resin pricing through the second half of 2025, despite signs of steadier demand in certain end markets.
Guidance and cash measures signal cautious near-term stance
Dow’s sales guidance implies continued pricing pressure into the fourth quarter, even as new Gulf Coast assets help utilisation and product mix.
Management has paired the capacity additions with cost-control actions and a programme to bolster near-term cash generation, reflecting a cautious stance on the chemical industry outlook and plastic packaging demand into 2026.
For packaging buyers and converters, the mix of stable-to-soft polyethylene prices and improving availability suggests ongoing negotiation leverage on contract and spot resin purchases, while producers emphasise operating discipline and portfolio optimisation to support margins.
Monitoring polymer price indices and export arbitrage trends will remain central to procurement strategies as the year closes.
