Shipments of corrugated packaging in the United States have dropped to their lowest levels in a decade, prompting speculation that the upcoming holiday season could prove weaker than expected for retailers.

Fragile box demand despite pre-holiday season

According to recent figures from the Fibre Box Association (FBA), U.S. corrugated box shipments in the third quarter of 2025 fell to their lowest third-quarter reading since 2015.

Typically, box shipments climb during the third quarter as retailers ramp up for holiday displays and stock. Yet this year several packaging firms have reported that orders during October were flat or below normal levels.

The decline in shipments is widely viewed as a demand indicator for consumer goods and retail supply-chains. Less demand for boxes may point towards muted retailer expectations or consumer spending.

Underlying economic pressures on box volumes

Industry commentary suggests multiple headwinds are contributing to the fall in corrugated box shipments. These include weak consumer sentiment, a sluggish housing market and trade policy uncertainty.

For example, major producer International Paper Co. has cited trade uncertainty and a weak housing market as reasons to expect a 1.0-1.5 % drop in shipments this year, reversing earlier growth expectations.

Further, production data shows that containerboard output (the primary raw material for corrugated boxes) fell 3.1 % year-on-year in Q3 and that capacity cuts across North America are proceeding rapidly.

Analysts note that per-capita box use is now more than 20 % below its 1999 peak, illustrating structural demand changes in the market.

Implications for packaging and retail sectors

For the packaging industry, the slump in box shipments is a warning signal. Reduced orders mean lower utilisation and higher pressure on margins and capacity planning. Some mills and converting plants have already announced closures or cutbacks in response to sustained weak demand.

From a retail perspective, the weakness in corrugated box volumes suggests that the forthcoming holiday shopping season may not deliver the same volume of goods movement seen in prior years.

Because many seasonal displays and shipping boxes are ordered late during Q3 into October, the low volumes raise questions about the scale of inventory build-up and promotional programmes.

For global packaging professionals, the current trend underscores growing emphasis on right-sizing, alternative fulfilment formats and more efficient packaging design to adapt to shifting demand. The fall-off in traditional corrugated box shipments may accelerate innovations in sustainable and flexible packaging options.

Ultimately, the marked decline in US corrugated box shipments signals caution not only within the packaging sector but across retail supply-chains.

It suggests that holiday demand may be under pressure, prompting a close watch on November and December volumes in the weeks ahead.